Geoinformatic Models, Simulations and Scenarios
Lecturer(s): asist. Bobovnik Nejc, izr. prof. dr. Krevs Marko
- purpose and characteristics of GIS -based modeling, simulations, and scenarios in geography; the temporal dimension of geographic modeling,
- overview of selected methods, tools and examples of GIS -based geographic modeling, simulations and scenarios,
- fundamentals of GIS -based simulation modeling of processes, with emphasis on land use/land cover change modeling: change analysis, geographic Markov chain method, cellular automata method, predictive simulation modeling, deterministic and probabilistic prediction of spatial changes, static and dynamic explanatory variables, selected machine learning methods for generating probability maps of transitions between land use/land cover categories, conditions and implementation of quality assessment of simulation prediction results,
- the fundamentals of applying the scenario method in geography: the relationship between simulations and scenarios; quantitative and qualitative elements of the scenario method; exploratory and anticipatory scenarios; complexity of geographic scenarios; central process and driving factors; recommendations for creating effective, persuasive scenarios; conceptualization and implementation scenarios;
- independent design and implementation of GIS-based scenarios of spatial change of the selected process in the selected area,
- written project work, documentation and research database, presentation in the seminar.